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Abstract

The objective of this paper is to derive the characteristics of an effective governance framework ensuring incentives for conducting a prudent fiscal policy.We study this problem with the use of econometric tools and a sample of 28 European Union Member States between 2003 and 2017. By looking at specific reforms and measures, not only we verify the synthetic effectiveness of fiscal constraints but also we analyse specific elements of the governance framework.Our study shows that fiscal balances are affected not only by the economic cycle, but, among others, by the level of public debt and its cost. We find that the existence of numerical fiscal rules, in that specifically revenue and expenditures rules, their strong legal entrenchment, surveillance mechanisms, sanctions, and flexibility with respect to business cycle have a significant impact on curbing deficits.

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Authors and Affiliations

Grzegorz Poniatowski
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Abstract

The problem of governments’ over-indebtedness is one of the most important challenges for today’s EMU governance. As numbers suggest, the problem of extensive deficits has appeared in the EMU long before the burst of the global financial crisis. We suspect that the membership in a currency area might be partially blamed for such progression of indebtedness. This paper examines the determinants of government risk premiums in the EU Member States to answer if the risk premium assigned by the market may give currency area Member States additional incentives for profligacy. Controlling other factors, we investigate the pattern in which fiscal deficits and GDP growth affect the yield of 10-year-maturity government bonds in the euro area and the non-euro area EU Member States. Our results are straightforward. The market penalizes EU countries that do not belong to the euro area for bad economic performance and extensive deficits from 4 to 7 times stronger. Our estimates confirm the strong impact of the common credibility problem in the EMU but also support the key role of financial stress in determining the cost of government debt.

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Authors and Affiliations

Grzegorz Poniatowski

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