Wyniki wyszukiwania

Filtruj wyniki

  • Czasopisma
  • Autorzy
  • Słowa kluczowe
  • Data
  • Typ

Wyniki wyszukiwania

Wyników: 4
Wyników na stronie: 25 50 75
Sortuj wg:

Abstrakt

Bayesian VAR (BVAR) models offer a practical solution to the parameter proliferation concerns as they allow to introduce a priori information on seasonality and persistence of inflation in a multivariate framework. We investigate alternative prior specifications in the case of time series with a clear seasonal pattern. In the empirical part we forecast the monthly headline inflation in the Polish economy over the period 2011‒2014 employing two popular BVAR frameworks: a steady-state reduced-form BVAR and just-identified structural BVAR model. To evaluate the forecast performance we use the pseudo real-time vintages of timely information from consumer and financial markets. We compare different models in terms of both point and density forecasts. Using formal testing procedure for density-based scores we provide the empirical evidence of superiority of the steady-state BVAR specifications with tight seasonal priors.

Przejdź do artykułu

Autorzy i Afiliacje

Damian Stelmasiak
Grzegorz Szafrański

Ta strona wykorzystuje pliki 'cookies'. Więcej informacji