The dynamic development of wind power in recent years has generated the demand for production forecasting tools in wind farms. The data obtained from mathematical models is useful both for wind farm owners and distribution and transmission system operators. The predictions of production allow the wind farm operator to control the operation of the turbine in real time or plan future repairs and maintenance work in the long run. In turn, the results of the forecasting model allow the transmission system operator to plan the operation of the power system and to decide whether to reduce the load of conventional power plants or to start the reserve units.
The presented article is a review of the currently applied methods of wind power generation forecasting. Due to the nature of the input data, physical and statistical methods are distinguished. The physical approach is based on the use of data related to atmospheric conditions, terrain, and wind farm characteristics. It is usually based on numerical weather prediction models (NWP). In turn, the statistical approach uses historical data sets to determine the dependence of output variables on input parameters. However, the most favorable, from the point of view of the quality of the results, are models that use hybrid approaches. Determining the best model turns out to be a complicated task, because its usefulness depends on many factors. The applied model may be highly accurate under given conditions, but it may be completely unsuitable for another wind farm.
The Upper Greensand Formation, mostly capped by the Chalk, crops out on the edges of a broad, dissected
plateau in Devon, west Dorset and south Somerset and has an almost continuous outcrop that runs from the Isle
of Purbeck to the Vale of Wardour in south Wiltshire. The Formation is well exposed in cliffs in east Devon and
the Isle of Purbeck, but is poorly exposed inland. It comprises sandstones and calcarenites with laterally and
stratigraphically variable amounts of carbonate cement, glauconite and chert. The sedimentology and palaeon-
tology indicate deposition in marginal marine-shelf environments that were at times subject to strong tidal and
wave-generated currents. The formation of the Upper Greensand successions in the region was influenced by
penecontemporaneous movements on major fault zones, some of which are sited over E-W trending Variscan
thrusts in the basement rocks and, locally, on minor faults. Comparison of the principal sedimentary breaks in
the succession with the sequence boundaries derived from world-wide sea-level curves suggests that local tec-
tonic events mask the effects of any eustatic changes in sea level. The preserved fauna is unevenly distributed,
both laterally and stratigraphically. Bivalves, gastropods and echinoids are common at some horizons but are
not age-diagnostic. Ammonites are common at a few stratigraphically narrowly defined horizons, but are rare
or absent throughout most of the succession. As a result, the age of parts of the succession is still poorly known