Hallmark professionalism in probabilistic analysis is to quantify the uncertainties involved in construction materials subject to intrinsic randomness in its physical and mechanical properties and is now gaining popularity in civil engineering arena. As well, knowledge of behaviour of materials is continuously evolving and its statistical descriptors are also changing when more and more data collected or even data updated and hence reliability analysis has to be carried out with the updated data as a continuous process. As per the committee report ACI 544.2R, it is found that there is no attempt made for probabilistic relation between cube compressive strength and cylinder compressive strength for fiber reinforced concrete. In consequence of this report, a robust relation between cube and cylinder of experimentally conducted compressive strength was established by Monte-Carlo simulation technique for different types of fibrous concrete like steel, alkali resistant glass and polyester fibrous concrete before and after thermoshock considering various uncertainties. Nevertheless simulated probabilistic modals, characteristic modals, optimized factor of safety and allowable designed cylinder compressive strength have been developed from the drawn probability of failure graph, which exhibits robust performance in realistic Civil Engineering materials and structures.
Biological diversity within a mixture field allows for better use of habitat and agro-technical conditions by the mixtures, which can be seen by higher and more stable yields than varieties sown separately. Our studies were conducted in the growing seasons 2011/2012–2014/2015 as field experiments with four winter barley varieties (Bombaj, Gil, Gregor, Bażant) and three, two- and three-component mixtures (Bombaj/Gil, Bombaj/Gregor, Gil/Gregor/Bażant). Seven different chemical treatments with fungicides were applied. The aim of this study was to compare the different varieties of winter barley with their mixtures for resistance to powdery mildew infection. To achieve this aim the logistic model for the analysis of data was used. Of the varieties under consideration, the best and the most resistant variety was Gregor, while the weakest and the most susceptible to diseases (powdery mildew) was Gil. This variety was also significantly weaker than any of the other mixtures taken into account. Moreover, it was so weak that when it was included in mixtures with other varieties, it weakened these mixtures as well.
Currently, the Republic of Kazakhstan is developing a new standard for symmetric data encryption. One of the candidates for the role of the standard is the Qamal encryption algorithm developed by the Institute of Information and Computer Technologies (Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan). The article describes the algorithm. Differential properties of the main operations that make up the Qamal cypher are considered in the questions of stability. We have shown that for a version with a 128-bit data block and the same secret key size for three rounds of encryption it is difficult to find the right pairs of texts with a probability of 2–120, which makes differential cryptanalysis not applicable to the Qamal cypher.
The paper evaluates the relationship between the selection of the probability density function and the construction price, and the price of the building's life cycle, in relation to the deterministic cost estimate in terms of the minimum, mean, and maximum. The deterministic cost estimates were made based on the minimum, mean, and maximum prices: labor rates, indirect costs, profit, and the cost of equipment and materials. The net construction prices received were given different probability density distributions based on the minimum, mean, and maximum values. Twelve kinds of probability distributions were used: triangular, normal, lognormal, beta pert, gamma, beta, exponential, Laplace, Cauchy, Gumbel, Rayleigh, and uniform. The results of calculations with the event probability from 5 to 95% were subjected to the statistical comparative analysis. The dependencies between the results of calculations were determined, for which different probability density distributions of price factors were assumed. A certain price level was assigned to specific distributions in 6 groups based on the t-test. It was shown that each of the distributions analyzed is suitable for use, however, it has consequences in the form of a final result. The lowest final price is obtained using the gamma distribution, the highest is obtained by the beta distribution, beta pert, normal, and uniform.
Civil engineering is one of the many fields of occurrences of uncertain parameters. The present paper in an attempt to present and describe the most common methods used for inclusions of uncertain parameters . These methods can be applied in the area of civil engineering as well as for a larger domain. Definitions and short explanations of methods based on probability, interval analysis, fuzzy sets, and convex sets are presented. Selected advantages, disadvantages, and the most common fields of implementation are indicated.
An example of a cantilever beam presented in this paper shows the main differences between the methods. Results of the performed analysis indicate that the use of convex sets allows us to obtain an accuracy of results similar to stochastic models. At the same time, the computational speed characteristic for interval methods is maintained.
Usually, cellular networks are modeled by placing each tier (e.g macro, pico and relay nodes) deterministically on a grid. When calculating the metric performances such as coverage probability, these networks are idealized for not considering the interference. Overcoming such limitation by realistic models is much appreciated. This paper considered two- tier twohop cellular network, each tier is consisting of two-hop relay transmission, relay nodes are relaying the message to the users that are in the cell edge. In addition, the locations of the relays, base stations (BSs), and users nodes are modeled as a point process on the plane to study the two hop downlink performance. Then, we obtain a tractable model for the k-coverage probability for the heterogeneous network consisting of the two-tier network. Stochastic geometry and point process theory have deployed to investigate the proposed two-hop scheme. The obtained results demonstrate the effectiveness and analytical tractability to study the heterogeneous performance.
The paper contains synthetic and analytical test results and model solutions for technical maintenance and wear problems of apartment houses traditionally structured. The crucial methodological aspect of the research is striving to minimize the subjectivity of expert assessment while technical investigation of old buildings. The cause and effect between the occurrence of damage to the elements of the rental houses, treated as an expression of the conditions for their maintenance, and the size of the technical process of wear of these elements was determined on a representative, purpose-appropriate, sample of 102 residential buildings erected in the second half of the 19th and early 20th centuries in downtown Wrocław (Poland) district. Rational maintenance of existing buildings is nowadays significant issue for their proprieties. Therefore, there is constant need to find a research method that may lead to well thought out building maintenance management. The goal of undergone research was to search influence of apartment houses maintenance on the grade and intensity of their deterioration. As to fulfil the research objective the group of engineers identified symptoms of the technical wear growth, which means performed identification of causes and effects responsible for the defects appearance. The range of the work demanded elaboration of a new qualitative model of detected defects and its transfer into a quantitative model. Therefore, such approach enabled to establish the reason - effect connection ‘defect - technical wear’ related to the crucial structural parts of investigated apartment houses.
An advanced evaluation technique, helpful in the fire resistance assessment of a simple steel structure exposed to fire is presented and discussed in detail on the example of an unrestrained and uniformly heated steel beam. The proposed design methodology deals with the generalised probability-based approach in which the most probable failure point is formally identified. The random nature of all variables considered in the detailed analysis is taken into account. The critical temperature of the steel from which the considered beam is made of is accepted here as the authoritative safety measure. This temperature value is associated with the fire resistance limit state defined for the maximum acceptable value of failure probability. When forecasting the failure probability, not only the risk of a potential fire being initiated but also not being effectively extinguished is included in the calculation. Various levels of the target failure probability may be assumed in such the analysis, depending on the selected reliability class. They are specified in general by setting an appropriate value of the required reliability index β fire req. In the presented design algorithm no representative values of the considered random variables are specified. The critical temperature estimates obtained from these calculations are always less restrictive in comparison with the corresponding solutions computed after applying the conventional standard procedure.
In this paper we present the Bayesian model selection procedure within the class of cointegrated processes. In order to make inference about the cointegration space we use the class of Matrix Angular Central Gaussian distributions. To carry out posterior simulations we use an alorithm based on the collapsed Gibbs sampler. The presented methods are applied to the analysis of the price – wage mechanism in the Polish economy.
The paper presents the method of determination of two-dimensional probability distribution Pf of crack initiation versus fatigue life N and the fatigue damage parameter : Pf − N − ϭ. The proposed distribution Pf uses parameters of the standard fatigue characteristics and allows calculating fatigue life of elements with heterogeneous stress fields at any probability level. The model was successfully verified on experimental test results.
To reliably calibrate suitable partial safety factors, useful for the specification of global condition describing structural safety level in considered design case, usually the evaluation of adequate failure probability is necessary. In accidental fire situation, not only probability of the collapse of load-bearing structure, but also another probability related to the people staying in a building at the moment of fire occurence should be assessed. Those values are different one from another in qualitative sense but they are coupled because they are determined by similar factors. The first one is the conditional probability with the condition that fire has already occured, whereas the second is the probability of failure in case of a potential fire, which can take place in the examined building compartment, but its ignition has not yet appeared. An engineering approach to estimate such both probabilities is presented and widely discussed in the article.