With the upcoming implementation of the centralized capacity market in Poland, capacity auctions will be organized where domestic power companies will offer their available capacities. It is assumed that bidding will be auctioned according to the so called descending clock auction system with uniform-price (Pay-as-Clear), which will lead to the market equilibrium price. Some analysts, however, are of the view that it is more appropriate to organize capacity auctions in the Pay-as-Bid formula, as this system should lead to lower prices that those of Pay-as-Clear, hence lower costs of capacity purchase. However, this opinion does not confirm the practice – theoretical considerations do not take into account such important factors as the behavior of market players and the tendency of bidders to accept a higher risk or the lack of access to advanced analyses, and thus better information for all market participants. This paper presents a hypothetical calculation of the prices in the centralized capacity market using Monte Carlo simulations. The results of the study confirm that the price level for the Pay-as-Bid system, due to the asymmetry of information and the level of concentration of the power generation sector in Poland would lead to higher prices than for the Pay-as-Clear system on average by approximately 2.5%. The implementation of the PAB system would, therefore, be less efficient to electricity consumers.
It is worth mentioning that despite of the decrease of coal generation in the energy mix, the fuel remains crucial for energy sector stabilizing the energy system and securing the energy supply in Poland as well as has a positive impact on the energy security of the European Union. The development of renewable energy will be possible with conventional energy compensating the unstable operation of renewable energy sources as climate conditions in Poland do not allow for the sustainable usage of renewable energy sources and thus, their effective utilization. The modernization of 200 MW energy generating units as well as the possible construction of 2–3 similar units will enable the stabilization of the amount of electricity in the transmission grid. The modern and modernized 200 MW energy generating units are able to maintain grid operation if needed and it will be easier to phase them out gradually as prosumer energy and energy storage technologies are being developed. Due to the held and planned general and additional generation capacity auctions for years following 2020, we are assured that despite the substantial increase of distributed generation sources in Poland’s energy mix, the electricity supply to end-users will be stable and safe.