Fumonisins are highly toxic metabolites produced by Fusarium proliferatum and Fusarium verticillioides. Little is known about the effects of a chronic low level of fumonisins on intestinal structure and innervation in monogastric animals, even though the intestine is the first organ exposed to fumonisins. The influence of the most prevalent strains of fumonisins, FB1 and FB2, on intestinal and liver morphology, the enteric nervous system and intestinal epithelial cell prolif- eration was investigated in an experimental rat model of fumonisin intoxication. Adolescent (5-weeks-old), male Wistar rats were randomly divided into a control group (C group) not treated with fumonisins or intoxicated with fumonisins (FB group). FB1 together with FB2 were daily administered intragastrically at a dose of 90 mg/kg body weight for 21 days. The damaging effect was assessed by determination of the activity of ALAT and AspAT. Samples from the small intes- tine and liver were taken and blood samples were collected to determine the activity of gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) and amylase. The exposure to FBs resulted in histopathological degenerative alterations in hepatocytes, including mild vacuolar degeneration and ballooning. FB exposure was also toxic in the duodenum and jejunum, where significant changes in morphology, cell proliferation, collagen wall fibres and innervation were observed. Taken together, the results obtained strengthen the hypothesis that chronic exposure to FBs could induce intestinal damage, including damage to the enteric nervous system and may have consequences for general health.
The aim of the study was to choose and validate the tool(s) to predict the number of hospitalized patients by testing three predictive algorithms: a linear regression model, Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model, and Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The study used data from the collection of data on infl ammatory bowel diseases (IBD) from the public database of the National Health Fund for the years 2009–2017, data recalculation taking into account the population of provinces and the country in particular years, and prediction making for the number of patients who would require hospitalization in 2017. Th e anticipated numbers were compared with real data and percentage prediction errors were calculated. Results of prediction for 2017 indicated the number of hospitalizations for Crohn’s disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) at 17 and 16 respectively per 100,000 persons and 72 per 100,000 persons for all IBD cases. Th e actual outcomes were 21 for both CD and UC (81% and 75% accuracy of prediction, respectively), and 99 for all IBD cases (73% accuracy). The prediction results do not diff er signifi cantly from the actual outcome, this means that the prediction tool (in the form of a linear regression) actually gives good results. Our study showed that the newly developed tool may be used to predict with good enough accuracy the number of patients hospitalized due to IBD in order to organize appropriate therapeutic resources.