@ARTICLE{Byrska-Rąpała_Alicja_Application_2000,
 author={Byrska-Rąpała, Alicja and Kozarkiewicz-Chlebowska, Alina},
 number={No 2},
 journal={Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi - Mineral Resources Management},
 pages={91-102},
 howpublished={online},
 year={2000},
 publisher={Komitet Zrównoważonej Gospodarki Surowcami Mineralnymi PAN},
 publisher={Instytut Gospodarki Surowcami Mineralnymi i Energią PAN},
 abstract={The main aim of this paper is to present the three-point method of hydrocarbon reserves estimation for a single prospect. This volumetric method can be regarded as a very useful and precise tool, despite the fact that it does not require complicated mathematical figures. In the volumetric method hydrocarbon recoverable reserves arc calculated as multiplication of a number of parameters, such as areal extent of prospect, net pay, porosity etc. Because of the uncertainty, cach parameter is represented as a distribution and, consequently, recoverable reserves have to be expressed as a probability distribution. This distribution can be obtained in Monte Carlo simulation process. The three-point method, which can be considered as an alternative to Monte Carlo simulation, instead of thousands of iterations, requires Pearson-Tuckey estimators for mean and variance. On the basis of these two parameters the distribution of reserves as well as other characteristics such as mode, median, percentiles can be calculated. In the first part of the article the assumptions as well as the main calculating procedures of the three-point method have been presented. In the next part, on the basis of a real prospect appraisal, the three-point method and Monte Carlo simulation method have been compared. The results of the case study as well as statistical tests have confirmed that the three-point method produces the results comparable with more complicated Monte Carlo simulation.},
 type={Artykuł},
 title={Application ofthe three- -point method to hydrocarbon reserves estimation},
 URL={http://czasopisma.pan.pl/Content/132778/PDF-MASTER/8_GSM_16_2_2000_Byrska_Rapala_Zastosowanie.pdf},
 keywords={Hydrocarbon reserves, reserves distribution, volumetric method, simulation, percentiles, sensitivity analysis},
}