@ARTICLE{Rybak_Aurelia_The_2024,
 author={Rybak, Aurelia and Rybak, Aleksandra},
 volume={vol. 40},
 number={No 1},
 journal={Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi - Mineral Resources Management},
 pages={187-212},
 howpublished={online},
 year={2024},
 publisher={Komitet Zrównoważonej Gospodarki Surowcami Mineralnymi PAN},
 publisher={Instytut Gospodarki Surowcami Mineralnymi i Energią PAN},
 abstract={This article presents the results of research on the importance of access to critical raw materials for the development of wind energy in Poland. The authors have built a set of factors that can potentially influence this development. Twenty-four explanatory variables were taken into account, which were assigned to five categories. The amount of demand for mineral resources related to the development of wind technology was determined using a computer programwritten by the authors. The importance of individual factors was verified using the ARMAX model. As a result of this, it was possible to identify the explanatory variables that significantly affect the volume of wind energy production in Poland. The group of mineral resources includes critical metals that are necessary for the production of wind turbines. These are rare earth elements, copper, nickel, boron and manganese. The ARMAX model enables the examination of the relationship between the explained variable and the explanatory variables. Optimization of the model parameters was performed by limiting the mean square error. During the validation of the model, the VIF (variance inflation factor), Dickey-Fuller and Doornik-Hansen tests were used. The ARMAX validation also consisted of selecting the model characterized by the lowest value of information criteria and determining ex post errors, including the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). In addition, the nature of individual independent variables was determined, i.e. whether they were stimulants, nominants, or destimulants. The forecast made it possible to verify the possibility of meeting the assumptions of the Polish Energy Policy until 2040. It showed that if the development trends of the factors that affect wind energy do not change, it would be possible to meet the assumptions of PEP2040 regarding the dynamic development of wind farms in Poland and double the generation capacity by 2030. Analysis using the ARMAX model showed that access to raw materials such as REE, Cu, Ni, Br and Mn would have a very significant impact on the development of wind energy in Poland. Each factor of the raw material category that was introduced into the model was considered statistically significant at the significance level of α = 0.01, i.e. at the lowest acceptable risk of error. Therefore, the raw material base would be of key importance to ensure access to wind energy at the level adopted in PEP2040.},
 type={Article},
 title={The impact of selected factors and access to mineral resources on the development of wind energy in Poland},
 URL={http://czasopisma.pan.pl/Content/130753/PDF-MASTER/Rybak-Rybak.pdf},
 doi={10.24425/gsm.2024.149303},
 keywords={wind energy, ARMAX model, forecasting, rare earth metals},
}