This paper presents some new results on exogeneity in models with latent variables. The concept of exogeneity is extended to the class of models with latent variables, in which a subset of parameters and latent variables is of interest. Exogeneity is discussed from the Bayesian point of view. We propose sufficient weak and strong exogeneity conditions in the vector error correction model (VECM) with stochastic volatility (SV) disturbances. Finally, an empirical illustration based on the VECM-SV model for the daily growth rates of two main official Polish exchange rates: USD/PLN and EUR/PLN, as well as EUR/USD from the international Forex market is presented. The exogeneity of the EUR/USD rate is examined. The strong exogeneity hypothesis of the EUR/USD rate is not rejected by the data.
In the article I present and criticize the view of classical compatibilism on freedom, i.e. the view according to which free subjects and free actions can exist in the world ruled by universal, exceptionless causality. I claim that compatibilism does not solve the problem of freedom and determinism, but avoids and disregards it. Compatibilism pretends to accomplish the task by playing with semantic tricks that create a misleading impression of ‛compatibility’.
High movements of asset prices constitute intrinsic elements of financial crises. There is a common agreement that extreme events are responsible for that. Making inference about the risk spillover and its effect on markets one should use such methods and tools that can fit properly for catastrophic events. In the paper Extreme Value Theory (EVT) invented particularly for modelling extreme events was used. The purpose of the paper is to model risky assets using EVT and to analyse the transfer of risk across the financial markets all over the world using the Granger causality in risk test. The concept of testing in causality in risk was extended to Spectral Risk Measure i.e., respective hypotheses were constructed and checked by simulation. The attention is concentrated on the Chinese financial processes and their relations with those in the rest of the globe. The original idea of the Granger causality in risk assumes usage of Value at Risk as a risk measure. We extended the scope of application of the test to Expected Shortfall and Spectral Risk Measure. The empirical results exhibit very interesting dependencies.
The mining sector played an important role in the economic growth of the developed countries with rich natural resources in the past, and in recent years, it is important for the economic growth of developing countries. Also, it is generally supported by the incentives due to the fact that mining sector causes other related sectors to grow. Incentives have been the most important economic policy instrument imposed by governments to boost economic growth in developed and developing countries. Incentives or supports given by Turkish state in order to increase the mining investments can be analyzed under two categories; incentives or supports based on the Turkish Mining Law, incentives or supports provided under the Investment Incentive Program. The effect of investment incentives applied to the mining sector in Turkey between the years of 2001 and 2017 on mining production index (MPI) and also the indirect effect of these on gross domestic product (GDP) are investigated by using Granger Causality Test and regression analysis. In this study, the data belonging to the number of investment incentive certificates received by firms operating in Mining Sector and the amount of total fixed investment were used. According to the findings obtained from this study, it has been determined that encouraging the fixed investments of the firms operating in the Mining Sector with incentives has a significant and positive impact on MPI and GDP in a short period of 1 year. H owever, the incentives applied to the mining sector did not increase the production index of the mine in parallel with the increase in the GDP.
The author tries to explain what consequences for social morality ensue from the assumption that moral attitudes are expressed not only in words but also in reactive attitudes. P.F. Strawson assumes that acts of resentment can alter attitudes of those who have triggered them by their behavior. On the other hand, we are ready to control our outbursts of short temper and anger to a certain degree if we take into account agents’ motives and their limited ability to exercise self-control. Moreover, it seems that reactive attitudes – though less precise than verbal rebuke – are more frank and straightforward. Nevertheless, why must I, when I hear a mediocre academic researcher brag over and over again about his apparently essential contribution to philosophy, curb my moral assessment of his self-importance to the level of my irritation? Why should I feel constrained to keep my moral disgust in tune with my impatience mixed with amusement? Why shouldn’t I continue to believe that I can be an amiable character and a rigorous moral person at the same time?
The term “cause” is ubiquitous in life and science. It is surprising how, generally speaking, the existing all-purpose dictionaries, and even «professional» ones, are clumsy in their attempts to define “cause” and its derivative terms. We urgently need a more satisfactory definition of these words, along the following lines: an acting of object x on object y is the cause of the change in object y, when at the same time object x acts on object y, object y changes, and if something of the type of object x acts on an object of the type of object y, then object y changes. When expanding the proposed definition, I consider, among others: (a) traditional counterarguments aimed at the existence of cause-effect relation, (b) the question of necessity as a component of the notion of causality, (c) the notion of acting on something and the circumstances of its occurrence, (d) the essence of change, and (e) the causality principle. In addition, I sketch the relation of the reconstructed notion of causality to the notions of motivation, perpetration, and the act of creation (in arts and in Catholicism).
The component of the cause for the emotional state of the person experiencing the emotion is built into the structure of the class of verba sentiendi. Most emotive verbs can be classed as P(x, q) predicates, where q is the position of the propositional argument in which the content qualifying the causal component is expressed. The syntactic characteristics of sentences (conjunctions, prepositions) often do not communicate unequivocally the causal function. This paper demonstrates the existence in languages of contextual syntactic conditions which foster the use of explicit exponents of causality (e.g., Pol. ponieważ / bo // z powodu; Bulg. защото / понеже // поради / заради / по повод), appearing in alteration with the exponents of cohesion typical of the given verb. Also brought to attention is the use in sentence structures of other lexical means serving a similar function, like Pol. wynikający / płynący; Bulg. причинен / предизвикан. In conclusion it is stated that the research which takes into account the semantic structure of the predicate allows for analyzing phenomena that are usually not included in descriptions of case government of verbs.